The disaster is now official: according to the latest UN climate report, it is “inevitable” that the world will fail to meet the target set out in the Paris Agreement. In the run-up to the upcoming climate conference in Turkey in November, pressure must now be brought to bear. “We will fall short of the target, but at the very least the consequences must be mitigated,” comments Andreas Ehrbar, Chief Operating Officer of the aream Group.

According to the UN, the target agreed in Paris – to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – can no longer be achieved. The consequences are clear: every additional fraction of a degree and every further year above 1.5 degrees Celsius exacerbates the climate impacts and risks, such as deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires.

According to the report, the aim should now be to minimise the extent of this ‘overshoot scenario’ as much as possible and to bring temperatures back down to 1.5 degrees or below by the end of the 21st century. “Achieving that, however, is likely to be very difficult,” says Ehrbar. “We are running out of time.”

In the UN’s most optimistic scenario, global warming could be limited to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, before temperatures are brought back down to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. To do so, however, greenhouse gas emissions would have to fall drastically: by 18 per cent by 2030, by 45 per cent by 2035 and by 69 per cent by 2040 compared with 2025 levels. In addition, huge quantities of carbon dioxide would have to be removed from the atmosphere and stored permanently. “Even the UN describes this as ‘uncertain’,” says Ehrbar. The expansion of renewable energies, grids and storage facilities must be driven forward with all possible vigour. “And that means worldwide.”

The photovoltaic systems in the aream portfolio had a difficult month in September. In Germany, only 76 per cent of the target was achieved; however, including compensated curtailments, the figure was 98 per cent. “In addition, grid disconnections and minor disruptions prevented a better performance,” explains Ehrbar. The Spanish plants achieved 62 per cent of their target and would have reached 94 per cent if uncompensated curtailments had been included. Despite ongoing voltage fluctuations in the electricity grid, the plants in Italy delivered a stable performance, achieving 99 per cent of their target.

September also saw satisfactory results for aream’s wind farms in Germany: despite regional variations in wind conditions, one plant being throttled back and curtailments subject to remuneration totalling around 1,500 MWh, the target was met to just under 91 per cent. “Without curtailments, it would have been 100 per cent,” says Ehrbar.